The Chris Moneymaker story is common poker lore. Chris played in a satellite event on an online poker site and won a seat at the 2003 World Series of Poker (WSOP) Main Event. Moneymaker hadn’t played in a live Texas No-Limit Hold’em tournament before the main event. Chris Moneymaker was an accountant by trade with a knack for the game and the numbers. He won the main event over a field of 839 players and took the first-place prize of $2.5 million. Word spread like wildfire about this huge underdog winning. It was a true to life Rocky type story. After Moneymaker’s victory a huge number of players entered the game. They were searching for fame and fortune by playing the elusive and fickle game of poker. The 839 players at the main event more than tripled to 2,576 players in 2004. The entrants ramped up to over 8,700 players by 2006. The explosion in Texas No-Limit Hold’em interest after 2003 helped coin the phrase: The Chris Moneymaker Effect. It was a major inflection point in the participants at the main event (a bellwether of player interest). Note: An inflection point is when the direction of a curve changes dramatically. Poker books, hole cams, RFID Technology, the internet & cell phones and the Chris Moneymaker Effect have all contributed to the explosion of interest in poker. However, in 2006 the winds of change started blowing through the poker landscape. These changes were significant. In the next Blog we will Explore the Unlawful Internet Gambling Enforcement Act (UIGEA) and Black Friday in poker. Stay tuned! Chuck I was very fortunate to meet and talk with Chris Moneymaker at the Texas Card House in 2019. He is a really great guy and a strong promoter of Texas No-Limit Hold'em!
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"The majority of players are looking for reasons to fold. I am looking for reasons to play." ~ Daniel Negreanu The Rule of 2 and 4 are quick shortcuts to help us work out the percentage needed to get a draw in Texas No-Limit Hold'em. These shortcuts aren’t exact. However, they are good enough for doing quick probabilities in our head at the tables.
The Rule of 2 The Rule of 2 states: Multiply your number of outs by 2 to get the approximate percentage of a draw you have on the turn or the river. For example, let's say you have a flush draw after the flop.
The Rule of 2 works because there are 52 cards in the deck and 52 goes into one hundred approximately twice. The Rule of 4 The Rule of 4 is used when you are considering an all-in move after the flop and will see both the turn and river cards. Multiply your number of outs by 4 to get the approximate percentage of a draw. Like the Rule of 2 example, you have a flush draw after the flop.
Once again, that’s close and useful for quick estimate at the tables. Note: The Core Math Chapter of Mastering Poker Math provides more detail on how this equation is derived. Pot odds and implied odds are major concepts in the math of poker. It is crucial to know when the odds are in your favor, and when they are against you. Then, you can make informed decisions on when to call, bet, fold, raise, re-raise or go all-in. Note: For the examples in this section, round numbers will used (whenever possible). It is easier to learn a concept in black and white. The real world runs in shades of gray. Consequently, at the poker tables you will need to approximate. Pot Odds Pot odds are the ratio of the current size of the pot to the cost of a contemplated call. For example, if there is $7,500 in a pot and villain (an opponent) bets $2,500. There is now $10,000 in the pot. It will cost you $2,500 to win a potential $10,000. If you bet there will be $12,500 in the pot. Your pot odds are 20% ($2,500/$12,500). You must win 1 out of 5 pots to break even. This can be expressed as 1:4. That is to say, you must win one pot and can lose four pots to break even. If you win more than that, you will make money. When the odds of drawing a card that wins the pot are higher than the pot odds, the call has a positive expectation. In other words, on average, you will win more money than the cost of the bet. Conversely, if the odds of drawing a winning card are numerically lower than the pot odds, the call has a negative expectation. On average, you will win less money than the cost of the bet. To explain this concept further let’s review a flush draw. Sometimes this is called chasing a flush. Example #1: Getting Pot Odds on a Flush Draw
Implied Odds Implied odds are your potential winnings by the end of the hand compared with the amount of money required to make a call. They are different than pot odds because they account for possible future betting. Implied odds are calculated in situations where you have a draw. You expect to make money on additional bets if your draw is made. And, you can fold to a bet on the next card if the pot and implied odds are unfavorable. Since you expect to gain additional money in a later round, or rounds (if your draw is made, and not be committed to lose additional bets when your draw is missed), the extra money you expect to gain is added to the current pot size. What you may gain is only an estimate depending on your read of the other player. It isn’t an exact science. Example #2: Getting Implied Odds on a Flush Draw
To learn more please go to the: Mastering Poker Math Book Copyright 2021
Charles W. Clayton All Rights Reserved "Poker is a skill game pretending to be a chance game.” ~ James Altucher The variability in poker is huge. This gives rise to some fascinating characteristics of the game. First, the high variance of the game provides excitement that has some addictive qualities. Second, a high percentage of players think they are better than they are because they can play with excellent players and do okay at times. They play by their gut and rarely (if ever) use the math. The high variability allows them this luxury. And third, there are few (possibly no other) major sports or games where the variability is as high as it is in Texas No-Limit Hold’em. Here are a couple of examples.
The point is that in most sports and games, the top players have an overwhelming advantage (because of small variances) over beginners in the long run, and well as in the short-run. This isn’t the case for No-Limit Hold’em in the short-run. Tight Hand Variances The poker hands in Hold’em have relatively tight hand variances. Here are some examples:
Note: The “s” in these examples means suited. The “o” means non-suited. This convention will be used throughout the text for suited and unsuited cards. There are many more examples. The point is, even the worst hands will win a reasonable percentage of the time against the best hands. It is this tight variance in poker hands which allows bad players to get lucky in the short run and beat good players. This is a major reason why vast numbers of people enjoy playing the game. On any given day even some of the worst players have a slight chance to win. But, not in the long run! The best players will consistently win because the game of Texas No-Limit Hold’em is really a skill game, not a luck game. Self-delusion is common in poker because of occasional runs of good cards and good luck. But good cards dry up, and good luck runs out. Bad beats (low probability events) by bad players are common in poker and cause many tilt related rantings, especially from those who don’t understand the math. Yet, it is just the variance which provide these emotional roller-coaster rides all poker players have experienced time and again. Millions of people play the game because of the high variability allowing them to get lucky at times. They supply massive sums of money for the tournaments fueling the poker boom. The silver lining is that the exceptional players do well over the long run. Although you will have plenty of bad beats (everyone does), in the long run if your math and other parts of your game are solid, you will do better than those who depend on luck, instead of skill as a strategy. So, what is luck? Simply put:
The top players are studious, curious, patient, willing to do the work and always striving to do better. They combine their math skills with their other poker skills and become a feared shark at the poker tables. In our next and final part of the Introduction we will discuss who Mastering Poker Math is for and the overall book layout Make sure you press "Like" if you enjoyed this Blog Post ...and be sure and share it with your friends! |
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