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Basic Poker Math Skills |
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“Money won is twice as sweet as money earned.” ~ Paul Newman in the Color of Money
Probabilities, Fractions, Odds & Counting Your Outs
Probability and Fractions
A probability is how likely something is to happen. They are given as percentages. Odds are another way of expressing probabilities. They are given as fractions. Here are some examples.
.33/(1 - .33) = .33/.66 = 1:2
In other words, you will win 1 time, and lose 2 times when the probability of winning is 33% (1/3).
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Pot Odds
Pot odds are the ratio of the current size of the pot to the cost of a contemplated call.
For example, if there is $7,500 in a pot and villain bets $2,500. There is now $10,000 in the pot. It will cost you $2,500 to win a potential $10,000. If you make the bet the pot will be $12,500. You must win 1 out of 5 times or 20% to break even ($12,500/$2,500 = 20%)
Your pot odds are expressed as 1:4. In other words, you must win one pot and lose four pots to break even. If you win more than that, you will make money.
When the odds of drawing a card that wins the pot are higher than the pot odds, the call has a positive expectation. In other words, on average, you will win more money than what is costs to call the bet.
Conversely, if the odds of drawing a winning card are numerically lower than the pot odds, the call has a negative expectation. On average, you will win less money than what it costs to call the bet.
Implied Odds
Implied odds are our potential winnings by the end of the hand compared with the amount of money required to make a call. They are different than pot odds because they account for possible future betting.
Implied odds are calculated in situations where you have a draw. You expect to make money on additional bets if your draw is made. You can fold to a bet on the next card if the pot and implied odds are unfavorable.
Since you expect to gain additional money in a later round, or rounds, when your draw is made, and not be committed to lose additional bets when your draw is missed, the extra money you expect to gain is added to the current pot size.
What you may gain is only an estimate depending on our read of the other player. It isn’t an exact science.
Pot odds are the ratio of the current size of the pot to the cost of a contemplated call.
For example, if there is $7,500 in a pot and villain bets $2,500. There is now $10,000 in the pot. It will cost you $2,500 to win a potential $10,000. If you make the bet the pot will be $12,500. You must win 1 out of 5 times or 20% to break even ($12,500/$2,500 = 20%)
Your pot odds are expressed as 1:4. In other words, you must win one pot and lose four pots to break even. If you win more than that, you will make money.
When the odds of drawing a card that wins the pot are higher than the pot odds, the call has a positive expectation. In other words, on average, you will win more money than what is costs to call the bet.
Conversely, if the odds of drawing a winning card are numerically lower than the pot odds, the call has a negative expectation. On average, you will win less money than what it costs to call the bet.
Implied Odds
Implied odds are our potential winnings by the end of the hand compared with the amount of money required to make a call. They are different than pot odds because they account for possible future betting.
Implied odds are calculated in situations where you have a draw. You expect to make money on additional bets if your draw is made. You can fold to a bet on the next card if the pot and implied odds are unfavorable.
Since you expect to gain additional money in a later round, or rounds, when your draw is made, and not be committed to lose additional bets when your draw is missed, the extra money you expect to gain is added to the current pot size.
What you may gain is only an estimate depending on our read of the other player. It isn’t an exact science.
Counting Your Outs
An out is any card which will help improve your hand significantly to one that is likely to win. Here are two examples to show how outs work.
Example 1:
If you have a J,9 of hearts and two hearts come out on the flop then there are 9 outs to make your flush.
An out is any card which will help improve your hand significantly to one that is likely to win. Here are two examples to show how outs work.
Example 1:
If you have a J,9 of hearts and two hearts come out on the flop then there are 9 outs to make your flush.
13 total cards to a suit – 4 flush cards = 9 remaining cards (outs)
Example 2:
If you have a 5,6 unsuited and a 4,7 and king come out on the flop them you have 4 cards to get a straight (4,5,6,7)
If you have a 5,6 unsuited and a 4,7 and king come out on the flop them you have 4 cards to get a straight (4,5,6,7)
There are 8 outs to make your straight. Four 4s and four 7s.
Charles W. Clayton
Copyright © 2019
All Rights Reserved
Copyright © 2019
All Rights Reserved